Poking The Bear

Attribution to Udo Keppler

The war in Ukraine is now a war in Ukraine and Russia. This should be seen as a dangerous turn. There have been drone attacks on Moscow, itself, including an attack on the Kremlin. There has also been attacks and shelling on the Russian region of Belgorod, which borders Ukraine and has resulted in deaths. The Russia n Bear has been poked on its own home turf.

Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, has been attacked by an increasing number of missiles and drones, with some of these drones provided by Ukraine. Ukrainian defenses have performed remarkably well in shooting down the drones and missiles, although a small number have gotten through. The Ukrainian ground war is more positive for Ukraine, as opposed to Russia and there is a Ukrainian Spring offensive that is (some say already has) soon to get underway.

The attacks, on Russia itself, is worrisome. Putin has put himself in a situation where he is like a caged bear. This special incursion, into Ukraine, is turning into a nightmare, for Putin. The vaunted Russian military machine has suffered a number of embarrassing setbacks and popular opinion is starting to turn against Putin.

Putin’s mental stability is being questioned. Putin and trump are a lot alike. Imagine, if Trump was in power and backed into a corner and he had all yes men surrounding him, how would he respond. This is the scenario for Putin.

Three possibilities might occur. Putin might launch a tactical nuclear strike. Both sides, given the bloodshed might sue for peace. Ukraine would only do so, if it got all its territory, including Crimea, back. Putin will never go for that. The third possibility is that Putin is overthrown.

If the Spring offensive is successful enough that Russian forces are pushed back to Ukraine’s Eastern border, Ukraine needs to stop there. If they decide to push into Russia… No, it can’t happen.

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